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Practical notes, explanations, and lessons filed under investing.
66 articles
CAVA's earnings gap, H&R Block's beat-and-raise setup, Brinker’s resilient Chili’s growth and a four-day gold rally show several non-tech pockets of strength after July CPI came in broadly as expected.
Fortinet, L3Harris and UPS still show real peer gaps into Wednesday, but the latest seven-session audit says one-day rebounds are not enough. With July CPI due before the open, there is no clean catch-up buy yet.
A pre-CPI next-session forecast for Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle, TSMC and ASML, with probabilities deliberately compressed after the prior catalyst model failed to show a reliable short-horizon edge.
An August 11 Market Momentum scan of Cardinal Health, Aramark and drug-distributor peers as earnings-driven strength stands out ahead of CPI.
L3Harris, Fortinet and UPS still show meaningful peer gaps, but Tuesday's screen finds no clean buy yet. LHX is closest to confirmation.
A premarket August 11 forecast for 12 major technology shares, combining fresh company catalysts and macro risk with a seven-session baseline audit that shows simple price signals still do not beat the always-up benchmark on holdout data.
Berkshire, Varex Imaging and MarineMax show three different kinds of relative strength on August 10, from earnings-backed buying to M&A-driven gaps.
Monday's US relative-laggard screen still has three real gaps: L3Harris versus defense, Fortinet versus cybersecurity, and Caterpillar versus Deere. The fundamentals are intact, but none deserves a blind premarket buy; LHX is closest to confirmation.
Friday’s rally broadened beyond megacap tech: small caps outpaced the S&P 500, Freeport rose 2.1%, and Nucor held around a post-earnings breakout as metals and mining surged for the week.
The US catch-up screen found one unusually large new relative gap after Friday's close: Fortinet versus the cybersecurity group. The fundamentals are intact, but the stock has not yet confirmed a turn, so today's answer is wait rather than force a trade.
D.R. Horton, Lennar and PulteGroup all outpaced the S&P 500 on August 7 as Treasury yields fell after a weak jobs report. The next test is whether lower-rate expectations survive inflation data.
Two US stocks with unusually large peer-performance gaps going into Monday: L3Harris and Caterpillar. Both have cleaner fundamentals than their price action suggests, but neither is a blind dip-buy.
