Research cutoff: approximately 6:35 a.m. ET / 11:35 a.m. BST on Thursday, August 13, 2026.
Target: the Thursday, August 13 U.S. regular trading session.
Main event: the U.S. Producer Price Index for July is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, less than two hours after this cutoff. A large surprise can invalidate every pre-release lean below.
The setup for Thursday is constructive, but it is not clean enough to chase.
Wednesday's CPI report was mild: headline consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, while core prices rose 0.2%. The S&P 500 then gained 0.26% and the Nasdaq 0.54%, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up 2.5%. Nvidia gained about 3% as strong results from AI-infrastructure companies revived confidence in data-center spending.
Thursday morning has kept that tone alive, but only barely. Reuters reported at 5:47 a.m. ET that Dow futures were up 0.24%, S&P 500 futures 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 futures only 0.02%. Brent crude was down 1.9% after six straight advances, reducing one inflation pressure, but the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained and geopolitical risk is still capable of moving oil quickly.
That means the hierarchy today is simple:
- PPI and Treasury yields first.
- Semiconductor breadth second.
- Company-specific catalysts third.
Nvidia has the cleanest positive setup because yesterday's sector strength now has another real-world demand read-through: India's Larsen & Toubro said it won an AI-data-center contract worth up to $1.57 billion from Together AI using Nvidia high-performance chips. AMD is the higher-beta recovery candidate because its AI-server and inference roadmap remains strong, but its post-earnings expectation reset makes it less clean than Nvidia.
Thursday watchlist
These are directional leans, not recommendations or price targets. "Positive" means the evidence is slightly better aligned for an up session at the research cutoff; "negative" means the opposite. PPI can flip the regime before the open.
| Ticker | Lean | Conviction | What matters most today |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Positive | Medium | Wednesday chip leadership + fresh Together AI data-center demand; PPI/yields remain the main risk |
| AMD | Positive | Medium-low | AI-server/inference roadmap + improving sector breadth; still carrying a difficult post-earnings expectations reset |
| AVGO | Positive | Medium-low | AI networking/custom silicon benefits from broad infrastructure strength; crowded positioning limits conviction |
| TSM | Positive | Medium-low | Advanced-node demand remains the core AI bottleneck; geopolitical and export-control risk remain material |
| ASML | Positive | Medium-low | Equipment spending read-through remains healthy; Applied Materials earnings after the close add sector event risk |
| META | Slight positive | Low | Strong ad economics and lower-rate sensitivity help; AI capex scrutiny remains |
| MSFT | Slight positive | Low | Azure/AI demand remains strong; valuation and capex-return sensitivity keep the setup close to neutral |
| AMZN | Slight positive | Low | AWS demand is supportive and the shares were modestly higher premarket; PPI controls the rate-sensitive trade |
| GOOGL | Slight positive | Low | Premarket recovery after recent weakness; capex/free-cash-flow debate still caps conviction |
| AAPL | Neutral to slight positive | Low | Roughly 0.5% premarket gain helps, but the recent analyst downgrade/weakness has not fully repaired |
| TSLA | Neutral | Low | High-beta reaction to yields and risk appetite dominates the current company-specific signal |
| ORCL | Neutral to negative | Low | AI demand is strong, but financing and free-cash-flow concerns make higher yields especially uncomfortable |
No stock deserves high conviction before an 8:30 a.m. inflation release.
1. Nvidia: the cleanest positive setup
Nvidia is the first name I would use to judge whether Wednesday's AI rally has real follow-through.
The stock rose about 3% Wednesday as the market rewarded a new batch of AI-infrastructure earnings. CoreWeave, Nebius and Super Micro Computer all produced results or outlooks that strengthened the argument that spending on compute, networking and data-center capacity remains elevated.
Thursday added another demand signal. Larsen & Toubro said it had secured an order worth as much as 150 billion rupees ($1.57 billion) from Together AI to host an AI data center using Nvidia chips. One project does not determine Nvidia's quarter, but it fits the larger pattern: AI demand is increasingly visible in physical data-center commitments rather than only management commentary.
Nvidia also has a clear near-term event horizon. The company is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results on August 26. That makes every infrastructure read-through more relevant, but it also means expectations can become crowded quickly.
What supports the positive lean
- Nvidia gained about 3% while the semiconductor index rose 2.5% Wednesday.
- Fresh AI-infrastructure earnings reinforced spending demand.
- The Together AI/L&T project is another concrete GPU-capacity deployment.
- Falling oil Thursday morning reduces one source of inflation pressure.
What can break it
- Hot PPI that pushes Treasury yields sharply higher.
- A Nasdaq rally that fails to keep semiconductor breadth positive.
- Another AI-infrastructure earnings miss that makes investors question the quality of spending.
The Cerebras reaction is a useful warning. Cerebras fell more than 18% premarket after missing quarterly revenue estimates despite raising annual targets. The market is still willing to reward AI growth, but it is also willing to punish any gap between expectations and execution.
2. AMD: stronger setup, but a harder stock to trust
AMD is the second positive lean, but it is not as clean as Nvidia.
The long-term evidence is constructive. AMD's Helios rack-scale AI system is in production and expected to begin shipping during the third quarter. The company is also expanding its inference strategy through the acquisition of Taalas and has continued building data-center infrastructure relationships.
The problem is expectations. AMD's August 4 earnings report was fundamentally strong, with data-center growth and guidance above published consensus, but the stock sold off because investors wanted a larger AI payoff. That matters because a positive industry day does not automatically erase an expectation reset.
Today's setup is therefore a confirmation trade, not a blind rebound thesis. If PPI is benign and AMD participates in another broad semiconductor advance, the recent damage looks more like a valuation reset inside a healthy sector. If chips rise and AMD lags again, that divergence is more important than the bullish product roadmap.
What supports the positive lean
- Semiconductor breadth improved materially Wednesday.
- Helios/MI455X gives AMD a real next-generation AI product cycle rather than a narrative-only catalyst.
- Inference-focused acquisitions broaden the stack.
- Strong AI-infrastructure earnings are supportive for accelerator demand generally.
What can break it
- Another relative-strength failure versus Nvidia and the semiconductor index.
- Hot PPI and higher yields.
- Continued investor skepticism that AMD can convert AI demand into growth fast enough to justify expectations.
3. Broadcom, TSMC and ASML: positive read-through, different risks
Broadcom remains one of the better secondary beneficiaries of AI infrastructure because custom accelerators and networking scale with data-center investment. The setup is positive as long as the semiconductor group remains broad rather than becoming a one-stock Nvidia trade.
TSMC has the most diversified manufacturing exposure in the list. Advanced AI chip production remains concentrated at TSMC, and the company is expanding globally, including the recently announced Sony joint venture in Japan for next-generation image sensors. The main short-horizon risk is geopolitical rather than demand-related: Taiwan tensions and U.S.-China export controls can overwhelm a clean operational thesis quickly.
ASML benefits from the same physical-capacity buildout, but today's sector-specific event is Applied Materials. Applied Materials is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results and hold its call after the U.S. close at 4:30 p.m. ET. That report is not a direct ASML earnings substitute, but guidance around leading-edge foundry, DRAM and advanced packaging spending will matter for the equipment complex.
Megacaps: mostly macro trades this morning
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta do not have a new company-specific catalyst strong enough to dominate PPI at this cutoff.
Reuters reported that Apple, Amazon and Alphabet were each up about 0.5% premarket, while the Nasdaq 100 future was almost flat. That is mildly constructive, but not enough for a strong call.
For Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, the same rate mechanism matters: a soft PPI that pulls yields lower makes expensive long-duration AI spending easier for investors to tolerate. A hot print does the opposite and brings capex/free-cash-flow debates back to the front.
Apple is slightly different because its recent weakness also includes company-specific estimate pressure. The stock can participate in a broad relief rally, but it has not yet produced the same clean AI-infrastructure catalyst as the chip leaders.
Oracle: the weak side of the AI buildout
Oracle remains the most awkward name in this watchlist because its AI demand story is strong while its financing story is uncomfortable.
The company's cloud backlog and infrastructure demand are genuine positives. The counterweight is the amount of capital required to build that capacity. When Treasury yields rise, investors become more sensitive to debt, lease obligations and free-cash-flow pressure.
That makes Oracle unusually dependent on today's inflation print. A soft PPI can produce a relief move even without new company news. A hot print can re-open the financing discount immediately.
Three PPI scenarios
Softer than expected
If producer inflation is clearly softer and the 10-year Treasury yield falls, the best setup is a continuation of Wednesday's AI leadership. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM and ASML should have the cleanest macro tailwind, while rate-sensitive megacaps can also participate.
Roughly in line
An in-line report should keep the market selective. In that environment, I would expect fresh company evidence to matter more: Nvidia's demand read-through and broad semiconductor strength stay useful, while AMD still needs relative-strength confirmation.
Hotter than expected
A hot PPI is the easiest invalidation. Higher yields would pressure the whole long-duration growth complex. ORCL, GOOGL, AMZN and the higher-beta chip names would become more vulnerable, and even the positive Nvidia/AMD calls would lose much of their value.
The other event investors should not ignore
Weekly U.S. jobless claims are also due Thursday morning, and Fed officials are scheduled to speak later in the day. The combination matters because markets are currently leaning toward a September rate pause after Wednesday's mild CPI and the weak July employment report.
Applied Materials then reports after the close. For a one-session forecast, that mostly matters near the end of the day, when semiconductor traders may reduce risk ahead of the report.
Bottom line
The market enters Thursday with a better setup than it had 48 hours ago: CPI was mild, oil is retreating, AI-infrastructure earnings were strong, and semiconductor breadth improved.
Nvidia is the cleanest positive setup. AMD is the higher-beta catch-up candidate, but it needs confirmation. Broadcom, TSMC and ASML remain constructive secondary names. The megacaps are closer to macro trades than company-specific calls, while Oracle remains unusually exposed to the direction of yields.
But the report has a short shelf life. PPI arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET. If it materially changes Treasury yields, the correct response is to update the regime rather than defend a forecast written before the data.
Educational disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment research, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Short-horizon market direction is highly uncertain, and economic releases can cause gaps beyond the scenarios discussed.
Sources
Checked August 13, 2026:
- Reuters — Wall St futures tick higher as oil retreats ahead of inflation data
- Reuters — S&P 500 ends higher as CoreWeave results fuel AI optimism
- Reuters — Larsen & Toubro secures AI data-centre order using Nvidia chips
- Reuters — Cerebras shares fall after quarterly revenue miss
- Reuters — AMD deepens AI inference bet with Taalas acquisition
- Reuters — AMD says Helios AI server is in full production
- Reuters — TSMC and Sony form image-sensor joint venture
- BLS — Producer Price Index release schedule
- Applied Materials — Q3 2026 earnings call scheduled for August 13
- Nvidia Investor Relations — Q2 FY2027 results scheduled for August 26
